investment is always a game of chance and chance a powerful opponent. The following articles in the German weekly newspaper Die Zeit is accompanied by little.
forecasts are difficult when they concern the future. This is not new, however, we focus our decisions in matters of money above all forecasts. Analysts expect appreciated chief economists, journalists hope to predict bank manager - and all are with regularity, but next to it.
It is foolish to rely on forecasts, because we always butt into unexpected events. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a native of Lebanon earlier in the service of financial mathematicians on Wall Street, the once wrote beautifully. Taleb recalls the great inventions that have shaped the human race: the Internet about the atomic bomb, the car - or the wheel Let us take our mind but in that short time period before the invention back. Who then would wish to make a correct prediction, the wheel would have to include in its considerations. He should have known what a bike and what it does - before it was invented. But if he had it all already know: Would he not even been invented?
No financial prophet, the attacks on 11 September 2001 anticipated. Or the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers on 15 September 2008. A fortiori, no one knew how it all would affect the financial markets. Even the most well-protected forecast can easily take the chance on the head.
For seven years I'll bet with my colleague Robert von Heusinger of the Frankfurt Observations on the Dax. Every January we make a wager on the status of the German stock index at the end of the year. Who is closer, to win a bottle of champagne. Robert takes the risk of large, backed by fundamentals forecast. I just say something, purely on gut feeling. Bets Of the past seven I won five, only two Robert.
is now, the coincidence was my friend. But to conclude from betting on the outcome of the next would be grossly negligent.
Source: Time
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